The Sick Irony of The Anti-Vaping Crusade
 

By now, Trump’s latest policy proposal has been widely reported. During a meeting on Wednesday with acting FDA director Ned Sharpless and HHS Secretary Alex Azar, Trump gave a characteristically rambling and incoherent condemnation of vaping. According to the president, his wife was the first to bring the issue to his attention. At her urging, he took up the issue with the FDA and HHS and ultimately decided to ban all flavored e-cigarettes. Like any other Trump policy, the vape ban is clearly driven by a gut reaction to headlines. Perhaps the president grew tired of not being at the center of an extremely hot news item. Either way, the president found the cover he needed from deflecting questions on gun control and, as a result, the entire vaping industry finds itself in the crosshairs instead.

While there’s a lot of talk regarding the lead-up to Trump’s left field attack on vaping, the more important and pressing concerns are: who is this really going to affect and how badly will this damage the country? While the actual nuts-and-bolts implementation of a federal flavor ban is still just over the horizon, we should all be aware of the dangers we’re facing.

 

Teenagers

 

Since this entire misguided policy is allegedly aimed at “protecting our teenagers” from vaping, why not start with how a flavor ban will affect them? As is traditional throughout US history, this bill is guided by a fundamental, deep misunderstanding of the nature of addiction. While anti-vapers gladly acknowledge that their teenagers are addicted to nicotine, they betray their own ignorance of what addiction actually means.

Simply put, people who are addicted to a substance don’t stop using it because you’ve made it difficult, or even impossible, to obtain. There are people in maximum security prisons who manage to get their daily dose of heroin. There are homeless people everywhere who manage to stay drunk without having a place to live or any source of income. The addict will always find a way. Thus, if these teenagers are truly addicted to nicotine, this ban will do nothing to deter them. They obviously prefer fruity flavors (as do most people), but they’ll make do with the other flavors as well.

While the ban won’t stop teenagers from vaping, it will stop them from vaping substances that are safely manufactured and reputably distributed. Instead, many teenagers will turn to black market vape dealers (which, very weirdly, will certainly become a thing) or even pick up combustible cigarettes. But they sure as hell won’t stop using nicotine.

 

 

 

Juul Labs

 

Let’s talk about the gorilla in the room, shall we? Juul Labs, the poster child for “the vaping industry” will likely be the only company to skate through this entire sequence of events. In fact, although much of the public support for this vaping ban was drummed up via anti-Juul sentiment, a flavor ban will actually help Juul quite a bit.

For one thing, Juul already voluntarily pulled all their sweet vape pods from store shelves in November 2018. This new proposal would simply bring Juul’s competitors back in line with a move they’ve already made. While this decision initially cut Juul’s revenue in half, their foresight could prove their saving grace. Now, they still sell their sweet flavors online, but, according to their CEO Kevin Burns, online sales are only 10% of their revenue. If this new federal proposal clears, they’re unlikely to be affected in any perceptible way.

Moreover, the FDA has charted a course for a 1-2 punch which will clear the field entirely for Juul. Once Trump’s plan goes live, a huge chunk of the vape market will disintegrate overnight. Those who survive the initial purge will find themselves forced out of business in May, when the FDA cracks down on companies unable to submit a costly and time-consuming FDA application. By May of next year, Juul Labs could very well be the only vape product on the market. Hilarious to think of all the angry parents who think that anti-vaping laws are going to affect Juul, the primary object of their scorn, only to inadvertently hand Juul Labs a complete monopoly over the industry.

 

The Vape Industry Itself

 

Gone. The vape industry will collapse upon itself like a dying star, there’s really no way around it. As mentioned above, very few vape companies, if any, will be able to survive both a flavor ban and a mandatory FDA approval process. While Trump ignorantly characterized the vape industry as a field dominated by fabulously wealthy corporations, the truth is that, aside from Juul, the vast majority of vape companies are small operations. Whether we’re talking about brick-and-mortar shops or e-liquid manufacturers, almost none of them have a sturdy enough financial foundation to weather a storm like this.

Once the vape industry has been destroyed, we will be left with millions of people addicted to nicotine and zero options for harm reduction.

 

Ex-Smokers & Current Smokers

 

While the anti-vapers focus on the connection between teenagers and sweet e-liquids, the truth is far more complicated. Studies have also shown that adults gravitate towards dessert and candy flavors far more than they do to tobacco flavors. Additionally, e-cigarettes have been proven, time and again, to be far more effective in smoking cessation programs than any other method.

By removing flavored e-liquids from the shelves, Trump will be discouraging smokers from making the switch and choosing harm reduction. Secondarily, the collateral damage of the flavor ban will be a rapid decline in the availability of high-quality vape devices. Smokers who are presented with an alternative, in vaping, which provides even less meaningful consumer choice and personalization than traditional cigarettes are going to be far less likely to give them up. To make matters worse, the persistent anti-vaping campaigns have convinced a disproportionate amount of American smokers that vaping is just as bad, if not worse, for them than smoking cigarettes.

Those who have already successfully quit smoking will also become far more likely to return to cigarettes. Different flavors, advanced vaping systems, and a massively competitive market are vital components of the vape industry. The incredible variety on display in the vape market is an essential part of its appeal. Without these advantages, thousands of demoralized ex-smokers will find themselves choosing between traditional cigarettes or an emergent black market.

 

Big Tobacco

 

We’ve always got to ask ourselves, “how is Big Tobacco doing?” or, as Mark Twain once said, “But who prays for Satan?”

The greatest irony of this entire farce, of course, is the entities who will benefit the most from federal anti-vaping legislation. When Altria invested several months ago in Juul Labs, they were likely anticipating a scenario exactly like the one in which we find ourselves today. Their heavy investment in Juul right when the company found themselves at the center of an anti-vaping maelstrom may have struck some outsiders as an odd decision.

On the other hand, we should expect to see more Big Tobacco money come pouring into the besieged vape industry. Altria’s money will carry Juul Labs to safety through this vape crackdown. Once the dust has settled, Juul will have a complete monopoly over the gutted vape industry – unless, that is, their competitors in Big Tobacco decide to assimilate some of the wounded and weakened vape companies.

The other option, of course, is that Big Tobacco companies may continue to push their own proprietary vape brands. If you look behind the counter at any gas station, you’ll see an entire wall of low-quality vape devices – these are the work of Big Tobacco. While branded differently from their combustible cigarettes, the money all goes to the same place. At the end of the day, Big Tobacco is the big winner of this entire game and the anti-vapers have played directly into their hands.

Well done.